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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still